VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

5/9/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CTLP Buy sub $8, but nuanced - cash generative, normalized mid single digits FCF yield - vending/ micro markets are part of the dystopian future we're headed towards, these guys have pole position and growing DD even in tough environment - ST hiccup had to do with weather (though I take that comment w a grain of salt b/c i've dealt...

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4/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:PINS I like the setup in to NASDAQ:META tn - quick one here - i like the setup in to NASDAQ:META tn. if NASDAQ:META "misses" and stock down big, i can second-order just buy that dip and lose money here - if NASDAQ:META beats (my expectation/ and by beat i mean expectations, guidance etc. etc. just not headlines) this drags...

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5/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:GOOGL Adding it back today at $150 - i'll leave valuation for another post, except to say (based on the logic below), it's more attractive than the converse. - aapl news/ testimony saying 'search lower'. okay. - in my own experience, it did get disintermediated by various ai chats (i use several), but ultimately i'm finding two...

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4/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SNAP I'm in for a small 1% sub $8 - the metric that matters most to me is growing DAU and at this stage, there's visibility to 1 bn DAUs. very few co's nevermind of this size, have that scale - we know openAI wants to build social. we know Google desperately needs social. etc. etc. and let's look a the metric that's perhaps the...

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4/25/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PEP ST trade... *again* low $130s - have seemed to bottom tick entries in the past - i "get" results "sucked", what's new in this environment for a co like this NYSE:PG results weren't much better IMHO - but the global snack king is unlikely to be dethroned anytime soon - 4.5% fcf yields legit - mid teens PE too cheap, or closer...

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4/21/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:FOUR Actually a buy mid 70s but... - great mgns and growth, rule of 40 check - 5% fcf mgns even on a lower fcf gen year - such high growth expectations in this environment still gives me pause, but all else equal stock still a winner on it's QQQ pair - the TL;DR after running thru payments names (which are *slightly* more tariff...

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3/20/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NVDA Patient, but path to $10 tn - as we reflect on this crack tape, i'd like to share a few thoughts here, hopefully keeping it a bit punchy and we can duke it out/ debate in the comments. - objectively, the level of HPC/ AI compute is accelerating up the S curve. - nvidia's customers are the most price inelastic buyers you...

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4/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:TSM Bot more pre mkt <$136 - normalized fcf yield of nearly 5% (but 4% on an investment year this year), goes to implied >6% next year - buying this, you don't pick horses, but only the ones that can afford the slots/ are growing fastest. e.g. if you think googl's silicon deployed locally will eat away at nvda share, or you think amd...

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4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:IRDM Not a LT winner - looking across the space names today - i think NASDAQ:ASTS remains the most interesting (and would benefit/ ironically from a space X IPO, mainly bc of multiple) - but financial engineering, e.g. a dividend... solid CF generation is fine for a soda brand, but not for satellite comms. - i could be wrong...

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4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:BMI Just too expensive - over 35x PE and almost 3% cf yield for MSD growth? - great biz, but do you think their supply chain won't be affected by the IRL stuff we're trading daily? - still a name to own LT, but just don't think you can buy this print. it's up... you probably sell the pop. it's down and you can't DCA it. - i'd have...

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4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: XETR:ALV Good biz, but not for me - over 5% fcf - autonomous won't disrupt this biz and it's established - still growing - good chart - just the wrong tape to start playing small size on prints, and i'm more curious how the co speaks about the guide/ outlook - this is on my radar, but tbh, i'd require a bigger discount to add the small...

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4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:BAC not a short but prefer jpm/gs - defn more of a focus for me on financials this year, which have some distinct advantages to other industry, in many ways you can think of them as the "picks and shovels" of the MAGA agenda. they r nearest to money printer. the stocks have held up well. co's needing WC help will benefit this subset...

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4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:GS A buy - 1.5x book w/ mid teens ROEs. - 11x PE - great result - financials will do well in this environment - not a tariff punching bag - all the financial services should supplement IPO/ IB issues in the ST - trying to keep cash high - but you could get 3% yield on a 2 week expiry at $500 stirke - or cash secured puts for about...

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4/11/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:GAMB Dare I say... obvious buy? - as the 10Y is begging for YCC or some sort of YELP! from the money changers and mouth breathers this weekend... - here's a name that makes money in a non-tariff exposed way. "yuh but V ppl r poor". yes. and sadly, many ppl will gamble more. it's just what happens. - FCF yields are in the TEENS...

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4/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ Don't fall for the meme So. You are following Trump on Truth Social. (strike 1) You are believing Dalio about the state of geopolitics. (strike 2) Jim Cramer is on in the background yelling (strike 3) Rando on X accounts "AI is a bubble" (strike 4) You can taper a USD ponzi scheme (strike 5) ... i could go on. Here's...

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4/9/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ADSK FYI/ probs a buy here low 240s - i'll keep the comments on single names short so we can move thru a lot in the next days/weeks - mid teens growth "prototyping" software, not any single industry exposed e.g. NASDAQ:CDNS for semis etc. - great ROICs >20% and high ROE's - cash gen of 2.2 bn on 52 bn EV is >4% yield, which given...

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One more from me tonight, friends, I keep staring at this chart which plots (the scatter-like print) ST rates vs. S&P earnings yield and also shows the S&P adjusted by M2 (purple). I believe one or the other is likely true. 1/ we're in the middle of a mega bull run that began in '09 and never really ended, given low rates, tons of tech-led innovation (with cash...

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4/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AAPL why it's the main stock to watch - up until recently the TVC:TNX (10Y) was headed lower. this changed in the last few sessions. let's leave the various "explanations" beyond this (perhaps the comments) and simply focus on price. - the reason NASDAQ:AAPL is of particular importance is given it's supreme weighting in the ...