Gold- 50 day ema in playAs my bearish gold call materializes, I must be aware of the 50 day ema. For all the reasons previously stated, gold is moving lower and it makes sense based on the patterns, divergences, support broken, etc. However, the 50 day ema support level can easily wipeout bearish sentiment if it holds. The 50 day ema is far more powerful than the multiple reasons to short gold. It is such a widely followed indicator and it lets new buyers come into the market to halt the price decline and further more, there will be a cohort of traders that close (buy) their short positions at the 50 day ema. So it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
Futures market
Gold Faces Strong Sell-Off: Is a Reversal on the Horizon? Gold Faces Strong Sell-Off After Initial Bounce – Is a Reversal Looming?
Gold opened the day with a slight uptick, only to be quickly slammed down, reflecting the current weakness in buying power. The market is reacting to news in flashes, quickly reversing direction — slow on the way up, but fast on the way down. This is the perfect reflection of a market losing confidence in any recovery trend.
🧐 Is This a Sign That Gold Is Heading Towards a Strong Reversal Zone?
📌 Support Zones to Monitor:
3222 – 3220: Short-term cushion. If this fails, expect further downward pressure.
3206 (M30): Next level of defense where technical reactions may occur.
⏳ Caution: Early European session tends to show strong volatility. If no clear signs of a bounce, be cautious of sudden sharp drops.
As for the trade negotiations, the developments around tariffs have been much more positive recently. Most news points toward further downside pressure on Gold, and it seems to be staying in the downward price channel. The price zones are not much different from yesterday’s levels, so I’ll slightly adjust my entries for today.
Watch the Resistance Levels: They are key for shorting opportunities. The BUY setup still seems far off; it’s hard to pick a good entry with resistance zones appearing everywhere right now. Don't rush into BUY positions just yet!
📊 Key Resistance Levels:
3244 – 3262 – 3278 – 3290 – 3308 – 3330
📊 Key Support Levels:
3216 – 3206 – 3194 – 3170 – 3158
🎯 Scalping BUY Zones:
BUY SCALP: 3196 – 3194
SL: 3190
TP: 3200 – 3204 – 3208 – 3212 – 3216 – 3220
BUY ZONE: 3158 – 3156
SL: 3152
TP: 3162 – 3166 – 3170 – 3174 – 3178 – 3182 – 3190
🎯 Scalping SELL Zones:
SELL SCALP: 3257 – 3259
SL: 3263
TP: 3253 – 3250 – 3246 – 3242 – 3238 – 3235 – 3230 – 3220
SELL ZONE: 3278 – 3280
SL: 3284
TP: 3274 – 3270 – 3266 – 3262 – 3258 – 3254 – 3250 – 3240 – 3230
🔎 Key Insights:
The market is moving in a tight range, but gold continues to hold below significant resistance. As the geopolitical situation stabilizes and tariff talks improve, any sudden price reversals will be important to monitor. The FOMC meeting and global developments will play key roles in shaping the future trend for gold.
💡 Conclusion:
Gold is facing a strong sell-off after testing key resistance. Focus on shorting at key resistance zones and be cautious with any buys until a clearer upward trend forms. Stay disciplined, watch the support levels carefully, and manage your trades well!
Gold's consolidation is over and bears will break 3200!Gold market analysis:
Short-term gold has entered a repair period. The previous tariff negotiations led to a sharp drop in gold. It has now fallen to around 3200 and is stuck. The shape and indicators show that 3200 is a super support. This position is greatly beneficial for selling on the weekly and daily lines. Yesterday, the daily cross star, the overall trend is still empty, the short-term repair range is 3265-3220. If you want to grasp the trend trading, sell at a high price and arrange the selling order. Lao Gu believes that the possibility of continuing to fall after the shock is over is greater, and it will break 3200 later. The daily moving average indicator is also broken. The gold fluctuation rhythm is very large, that is, a technical rebound and repair are basically dozens of points. It is most important for us to grasp the rhythm in operation. Today's idea can rely on the upper edge pressure of the shock to sell.
If the Asian session rebounds around 3256 first, consider selling it first. There are opportunities for buying and selling in the volatile market. What we need is patience and waiting. In addition, the daily moving average begins to rush down, and selling begins to move. If it breaks 3200, we will consider selling. We must learn to follow the recent market. We rarely follow it before, because the recent gold will not turn back when it falls or rises, and the speed of buying and selling is also very fast. It is very important to control the rhythm.
Support 3220, 3207, strong support 3200, pressure 3244, 3256, 3265, the watershed of strength and weakness of the market is 3230.
Operation suggestion
Gold-----short around 3256, target 3150-3200
Gold Selloff Continues as US–China 90-Day Deal Adds PressureGold did not respond well to the new 90-day deal between China and the U.S. On top of the India–Pakistan ceasefire, starting Ukraine–Russia ceasefire negotiations, Hamas–U.S. talks, and nuclear discussions with Iran, several developments are reducing global risk and weakening safe haven demand.
Many fundamental factors are starting to turn against gold. One of the key signs is the heavy profit-taking seen in the "managed money" positions in the COT report in the last several weeks. These developments are now starting to show in the price action.
The "weak double top" pattern, which is one of gold’s go-to reversal signals at major tops, gave the first warning. Since then, local support levels have been falling one by one. Gold is now testing the 3,200 level, which is expected to act as support. However, if this level breaks, the next target could be in the 3,145–3,170 range. The main medium-term target for a deeper correction remains around 3,000.
For any strong upward reaction, bulls should watch the 3,270–3,290 zone. If gold bounces from 3,200, this area could offer strong resistance and potentially cap further upside.
Gold has now fallen by 3200, and the next support level is 3160
📌 Driving factors
As Sino-US trade tensions ease, market concerns about a global recession have eased, investor risk appetite has increased, and the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has declined, and gold prices fell on Wednesday (May 14). After the tariff truce announced over the weekend, the stock market rose sharply, weakening the safe-haven appeal of gold in the short term, which was an important factor that pushed gold prices to new highs in the previous few months, and it is also the starting point for the current large number of sell-offs!
Driven by bargain hunting, gold prices rebounded on Tuesday, and the weaker-than-expected US inflation data released that day also helped gold prices rise. However, trade optimism limits the strength of gold's rebound.
📊Commentary Analysis
Gold began to fall in the early trading of the US market and is about to fall to our expected point. The support below is 3160!
💰Strategy Package
🔥Selling Gold Area: 3245-3240 SL 3250
TP1: $3230
TP2: $3210
TP3: $3190
🔥Buying Gold Area: $3167-$3165 SL $3160
TP1: $3178
TP2: $3189
TP3: $3200!
Labaron believes
Guaranteeing the principal is the bottom line for survival, controlling risks is the armor for survival, earning profits is a stage medal, and long-term stable and continuous profits are the only proof of being able to stand up from the mountains of corpses and seas of blood.
XAUUSD 1H | Bearish Order Block Reaction + Liquidity Sweep🔻 XAUUSD 1-Hour Breakdown — May 14, 2025
Gold gave a strong supply rejection at a marked Order Block zone. This isn’t just a pullback — it’s a potential continuation setup targeting lower lows. Here’s what’s cooking:
🧩 1. Market Structure
Clean rejection from premium OB zone at ~$3,220
Massive bearish impulse candle right after sweeping demand zone liquidity
Price formed a lower low and is now forming a lower high
🛠 2. Key Confluences
🟪 Order Block: Solid rejection with no candle closes above
💧 Liquidity Sweep: Deep wick into OB zone → trapped breakout buyers
🔺 Strong High Protected: Market respects structure, suggesting continuation
🔻 Weak Low Targeted: Clean draw to imbalance & potential sweep zone near $3,116
🧠 3. Trade Setup
Entry: Rejection near $3,207–3,220 OB
SL: Above $3,229 (invalidates structure)
TP: First TP zone near $3,116, extended TP: $3,100
RRR: 1:4 to 1:6 setup depending on partials
⚠️ 4. Risk Management
Watch for NY session reversal attempts
Secure profits at first demand zone reaction
Consider trailing stop above last bearish engulfing candle
📌 Price respects structure. If bulls don’t step in quick, sellers will run the table. This is a classic SMC bearish continuation off OB + liquidity grab — don’t sleep on it!
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Gold looks at the support below at 3160
Views on the future trend of gold!
Gold fell back quickly at the opening, then rebounded slightly, and has been moving sideways. Shadows appeared in the past three trading days last week, suggesting that there is a large difference between bulls and bears in the current price, and no decisive breakthrough can be achieved in the short term. Due to the recent obvious volatility, there is still uncertainty as to whether the direction will be quickly chosen. Therefore, trend trading may require patience to wait for the market to make its own decision, and it is easier to be fooled by chasing ups and downs during the trading session.
For the layout of this trading day, we still adhere to our expectation of a short fall in the general direction, and the idea of shorting in the band remains unchanged. Short-term bulls resisted stubbornly, and the decline was reversed by bulls, but the general trend has been established, and the rebound does not hinder the final decline expectation. In the short term, we can also maintain the high-altitude idea to start, and focus on the 3230 suppression to enter the market in the evening. The bearish trend remains unchanged today!
Gold: 3240 band shorts can be freely held or closed, with a target of 3165-70! For long positions, pay attention to the support near 3160 below and then consider whether to intervene!
GOLD - rebound before the fall continuesGOLD is testing key support. The price approached from afar and quite sharply. On high volatility the level will be difficult to break through and we should wait for correction
Within the framework of correction gold may test 0.5 - 0.7 Fibo and turn around to continue its fall.
Scenario:
False break of support 3200 - 3203, consolidation above the level and correction to 3222. From 3222 we can consider the continuation of the fall
15/5/25 Retest 4000 high or Can Bears Get a FT Bear Bar?
Wednesday's candlestick (May 14) was a bull doji closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
In our previous report, we said the traders want to see if the bulls can create sustained follow-through buying, closing above the 20-day EMA or if the market would trade higher, but stalls around the 20-day EMA area (around 3950) and close with a long tail or a bear body instead (if this is the case, that would indicate the bulls are not as strong as they hope to be).
The market traded higher above the 20-day EMA, but reversed off the day's high to close below it (the 20-day EMA). The long tail above and the candlestick closing in its lower half indicate the bulls are not yet strong.
The bears see the current move as a pullback. They hope that the pullback in the last 5 days has alleviated the oversold conditions and want a resumption of the trend.
They want it to stall around the 20-day EMA (around 3950), or around the 3970-4000 area, forming a double top bear flag with the April 25 high. Today (Wed, May 14), the market tested near the 4000 level and reversed off it, closing below 3950.
If the market trades higher, they want it to form a double top with the May 14 high (around the 4000 area)
They see today's candlestick (Wed, May 14) as a reversal bar and want a reversal from a double top bear flag with the April 25 high.
They need to create a strong follow-through bear bar tomorrow to increase the odds of a reversal down.
The bulls got a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal and a wedge pattern (Apr 9, Apr 22, and May 8). They want a failed breakout below the January low.
They want a TBTL (Ten Bars, Two Legs) pullback, lasting about 2 weeks.
If there is a pullback lower, they want the market to form a higher low followed by at least a small second leg sideways to up to retest the current leg high (now May 14 high).
So far, the market traded above the 20-day EMA today (Wed, May 14) but could not close above it.
The bulls must create follow-through buying and trading far above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
The wedge pattern increases the odds of a small 2-legged sideways to up pullback. So far, the minimum requirement has been fulfilled.
For tomorrow (Thursday, 15/5/25), traders want to see if there will be a retest of the 4000 high area. If there is, will it break above it or form a lower high? If the retest of the 4000 level is weak, sellers may return.
Or will the bears be able to create a strong bear entry bar? If yes, we may get a retest of the May 8 low, even if it only forms a higher low.
Breakouts from trading ranges can fail, and odds slightly favor the trading range to continue until there is a strong breakout with sustained follow-through selling/buying.
Andrew
(Gold) – Short Setup Based on Technical Trend and Price ActionGold is exhibiting bearish momentum on the 30-minute chart, confirming a potential continuation of the downtrend. The price has broken below key support near 3,232.22 and is currently forming lower highs and lower lows. The red Kumo cloud and strong bearish candles reinforce selling pressure.
Entry: 3,226.900
Stop Loss: 3,246.00 (above recent structure and cloud resistance)
Take Profit: 3,198.00 (based on previous support zone and measured move)
This trade idea aligns with the broader fundamental view of potential dollar strength and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Always manage risk appropriately.
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GOLD (XAU/USD) : Short OppurtunityAs always DYOR,
I believe gold is forming a bear flag pattern, which typically signals a continuation of the previous downtrend. After a sharp drop, the price consolidated inside a rising parallel channel (marked with red dashed lines), characteristic of a bear flag. This channel lacks strong bullish momentum and follows a steep downward move, suggesting it's a corrective phase rather than a reversal. The price also failed to break above key resistance near 3,238.75 and is showing signs of rejection from the channel's upper boundary.
My projection targets a further decline toward 3,206.97, aligning with the flag's expected breakdown and continuation of the previous bearish leg.
Gold volatility pattern to be broken
Market status: intertwined bullish and bearish factors, gold prices are under pressure and fluctuate
Negative factors:
The easing of US-China tariff negotiations and potential progress in the situation between Russia and Ukraine weakened the demand for safe-haven assets.
Although the US dollar index was weak, it failed to boost the momentum of gold's rebound.
Potential positives:
Expectations of Fed rate cuts have increased (market pricing for the first cut in September, a total of 53 basis points in 2025).
If the US PPI data on Thursday confirms the slowdown in inflation, it may strengthen expectations of easing.
Technical analysis: The battle for key positions determines the direction
Short-term structure:
Support: 3220-3215 (intraday key) → If it fails, it will drop to the psychological level of 3200 → Further break to see 3167 (0.618 retracement level).
Resistance: 3260 (may test 3270-3280 after breakthrough) → 3300 (Bollinger middle rail suppression).
Pattern: Daily potential W bottom (3200 stabilizes and looks up to 3400) or M top (break 3200 and look down to 3160).
Indicator signal:
Weekly: Wide range of shocks continues.
4 hours: Converging triangle pattern is close to breaking, and direction may be selected in the evening.
Operation strategy: Sell high and buy low within the range, follow the break
Bull strategy: Stabilize and go long in the 3200-3215 area, target 3260, stop loss below 3190.
Short strategy: Short near 3240, look down to 3220-3215, stop loss 3250.
Follow up after the break:
Break up 3260 and chase long, target 3280-3300.
Break down 3200 and follow the short position to 3180-3167, and reverse the layout of the medium-term long order.
Risk warning: PPI data and geopolitical events may cause fluctuations, and strict risk control is required.
Gold crash alarm is sounding!
Technical aspects:The pressure area of gold is concentrated in the range of 3250-3260. If the market remains weak and under pressure, it will be difficult for gold prices to break through this area. The key support around 3210-3200 should be focused on for gold to go down. If the gold price falls below the support of 3200, it may trigger a waterfall-like decline, and the expected support bottom is in the area of 3100-3050.
In terms of operation, you can wait for the opportunity to rebound and come under pressure after the position is broken, and take advantage of the trend to place short orders. It is important to remember that 3200 is like a key line of defense. Once it falls, it will trigger a chain selling.
XAUUSD Potential LONGSBLUEBERRY:XAUUSD
XAUUSD Potential Longs into 3338
Technical Analysis
-Beginning of May we saw PA took price to the BUY side liquidity of 3200 and rallied to the top side 3434
-Yesterday Major Support has held perfectly after tapping the levels of 3211 on the 4hr TF
-Tapping into major BUY side liquidity which was sat at 3211 without distributing further into the lows of 3200 once more, signalling that the Bearish Momentum has finished for now.
-Yesterdays daily candle held an closed above 3235 after creating new support at the 3220 levels.
-Price opened today with a gap up in price, we have so far filled the gap an is now attempting to breaks resistance once
-IMO if the 4HR tf starts breaking resistances and flip after holding 200 daily, gives way to a fresh wave of BUYERS to step in to take price back to 3338 with potential of a 3400 retest.
Fundamentals
-At this very moment there is a ceasefire with Pakistan an India.
-Trade tariffs has been eased up on both China an USA
-DXY is rallying to the upside which would mean XAU should head for the floor, However heavy manipulation is to be expected as No one is certain as to what Trump has up his sleeves.
Asian/London Session breaking highs of 3260 should see us flipping on the 4HR TF which would mean BUYERS are in the market!
This is not financial advice.
Bullish Momentum ContinuesBullish Momentum continues but a retracement is very well needed. We are currently at 2.5 STDV level and my final target is 4 STDV drawn on the chart but before we get there, I do want to see a solid retracement down.
We also pushed through that monthly FVG so retracement after such a displacement is seen very often. We will either push a bit higher first then back to FVG then to 4 STDV or retrace now, perhaps to CE of that FVH then push to 4 STDV.
Gold's Fakeout Into The Trap — Smart Money is Loading Up🟡 GOLD 30-Min Chart Breakdown — May 14, 2025
Gold just gave us a masterclass in Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Let’s dissect the juicy bits of this long setup:
🧩 1. Structure Overview
Market in a defined downward channel
Price taps the order block from previous accumulation zone
A liquidity sweep wick pierces just below the OB (classic SMC trap)
🛠 2. Key Confluences
🔵 Order Block: Held strong, respected on multiple timeframes
🔴 Liquidity Sweep: Deep wick hunts stops below OB, then bullish reaction
📉 Descending Channel: Price bounced off the bottom trendline
✅ Clean RRR Long: Setup has 1:5+ potential if targeting the upper channel
📈 3. Trade Idea
Entry: Around $3,220
Stop: Under $3,206 (below liquidity sweep)
TP: Zone near $3,257
Expecting breakout attempt if momentum breaks structure above $3,240
📉 4. Risk Notes & Management
Keep an eye on Asian session volume — fakeouts are common
Trail stop as price pushes past mid-channel
Rejection at $3,240 = consider partial close
📌 Gold loves a dramatic reversal — this one is no different. Smart money doesn’t chase — they accumulate in fear. This setup screams institutional entry zone.
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