Gold Update: 2 optionsIndeed, the top metal surged well beyond $3,000, as I mentioned in my earlier post (see related post for details).
The price reached a new all-time high of $3,510 before pulling back, as expected.
So far, the retracement has been rejected at the trendline support around $3,123 (futures).
From here, there are two possible scenarios:
1) Blue Labels
The price may have already completed wave 4. If so, we could now see a large wave 5 move to the upside.
This wave could reach the blue target box, which represents 61.8% to 100% of the distance from wave 1 to wave 3, added to the bottom of wave 4.
This target zone lies between $3,700 and $4,100.
Keep in mind that gold is a commodity, and commodities often have extended fifth waves — so the higher end of the blue box is still possible.
2) White Labels
Typically, fourth waves retrace down to the valleys of previous lower-degree fourth waves.
In this case, the market could form another leg down to complete a larger, more complex correction, potentially hitting $2,975 before wave 5 begins.
If that happens, the target for wave 5 may be lower, but with a possible extended fifth wave, it could still reach the blue box area.
