Green Plains 
GPRE, a company involved in the production of fuel-grade ethanol and corn oil, and grain handling/storage has seen a significant decline in stock price since 2023. Analyzing the company's historical stock performance shows it is highly cyclical and goes through "boom and bust" cycles every 4-8 years - whereby during booms the price has typically 10x'ed from the lows. History may not repeat, though.
From a pure technical analysis perspective, the company has already entered and slightly exited by "crash" simple moving average zone (green lines). While the lows may not be in yet, this zone (currently between $1.20 and $3.30) typically represents a longer-term bounce area or price consolidation.
Fundamentally, the company is currently unprofitable but expected to become profitable in 2026 and beyond. Debt-to-equity = 0.72x (low/moderate). Price-to-book = 0.31x. During the most recent earnings call, Chief Legal and Administration Officer at Green Plains noted the company’s past performance has not met expectations, but stressed “that is changing.” This includes exiting non-core operations and launching the sale of non-strategic assets in a commitment to achieve $50 million in cost reductions. The company is on track to meet that goal and has already achieved $30 million in annualized cost savings.
It's a speculative play that could go to $0. But at $4.18,GPRE is in a personal buy zone based on technical analysis as well as future fundamental predictions (which could be BS...).
Targets:
GPRE, a company involved in the production of fuel-grade ethanol and corn oil, and grain handling/storage has seen a significant decline in stock price since 2023. Analyzing the company's historical stock performance shows it is highly cyclical and goes through "boom and bust" cycles every 4-8 years - whereby during booms the price has typically 10x'ed from the lows. History may not repeat, though.From a pure technical analysis perspective, the company has already entered and slightly exited by "crash" simple moving average zone (green lines). While the lows may not be in yet, this zone (currently between $1.20 and $3.30) typically represents a longer-term bounce area or price consolidation.
Fundamentally, the company is currently unprofitable but expected to become profitable in 2026 and beyond. Debt-to-equity = 0.72x (low/moderate). Price-to-book = 0.31x. During the most recent earnings call, Chief Legal and Administration Officer at Green Plains noted the company’s past performance has not met expectations, but stressed “that is changing.” This includes exiting non-core operations and launching the sale of non-strategic assets in a commitment to achieve $50 million in cost reductions. The company is on track to meet that goal and has already achieved $30 million in annualized cost savings.
It's a speculative play that could go to $0. But at $4.18,
GPRE is in a personal buy zone based on technical analysis as well as future fundamental predictions (which could be BS...).Targets:
- $6.00
- $8.00
Trade active
Fully exited the position at $5.05 for a 20.1% gain in 10 days. Never was a long-term hold, given the weariness of the fundamentals. Profits arose quickly and I'll take them. I'll keep the trading as "active" to monitor the targets and close it if the price drops below entry ($4.18, which may happen given the open price gaps on the daily chart). 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.